tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-87068256408414703712024-02-19T08:33:19.495-08:00MLS FantasyA statistical approach to playing the official MLS fantasy game.Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.comBlogger66125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-25298793474237725892015-03-03T22:21:00.000-08:002015-03-03T22:21:45.244-08:00Blog currently inactiveHi everyone!<br />
<br />
Just wanted to give a quick update that I don't have plans to update this blog at this point. I just don't write consistently enough to warrant my own blog. For the time being, anything I write will be posted over at <a href="http://mlsfantasyboss.com/">mlsfantasyboss.com</a> or <a href="http://reddit.com/r/fantasymls">reddit.com/r/fantasymls.</a><br />
<br />
Happy analyzing!Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-67058630270001402772014-02-27T18:30:00.002-08:002014-02-27T18:30:56.776-08:00Under the Radar or Over-Owned<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">UNDER THE RADAR OR
OVER-HYPED</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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Alright, so I’ve published a giant pile of data with a small
bit of written analysis to accompany it. I’ve recommended the reddit forum for
discussion about strategies and individual players. I’ve revealed my current
lineup. Now it’s time to get into some risky picks that I think are flying
under the radar and which players are way over-hyped or over-owned.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Under the radar</b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">San Jose defenders</b>
– I understand that they are under-owned partially because they have a bye to
start the season and have champions league to congest their schedule early on.
However, their defenders haven’t even been in any discussion that I’ve seen
anywhere. Last year the average team kept a clean sheet 28% of the time. San
Jose under Mark Watson (and after the addition of Clarence Goodson and Jordan
Stewart) kept a clean sheet 42% of their games – only Portland had a better
rate for the full season last year. Specifically, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Victor Bernardez</b> was in the top 20% of defenders in both CBI/minute
and recoveries/minute – and he can chip in an odd goal or assist.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Matt Hedges – </b>He
is in the top 20% for both CBI and recoveries per minute. He can score goals.
Dallas’ schedule to start the season is fantastic. Sign me up!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Chad Marshall – </b>Same
reasoning as Hedges.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">David Horst – </b>It
looks like he is winning the battle for the other starting center back role in
Houston. Assuming he does, he is insane value.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Thomas McNamara – </b>He
has been starting for Chivas in preseason and seems locked in to start.
Brilliant option as your last sub to free up some money to upgrade elsewhere.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Mauro Diaz – </b>He
is the creator in Dallas. His PP90 and underlying stats last season were insane
and if he continues to create close to that same rate, he will be some of the
best value in the game.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Dillon Serna – </b>Same
reasoning as McNamara.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Gaston Fernandez – </b>He
will start for Portland. Depending on Valeri’s health, it might be as CAM or it
might be as LM. Either way, he is a great combination player and has been on
set pieces so he’ll collect bonus points. Plus he’s reasonably priced at $8.0.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Stefan Frei – </b>He
will be the starter in Seattle. He is cheap. Seattle’s defense has been solid
in preseason.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">OVER-OWNED, OVER-HYPED</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Defenders</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Deandre Yedlin</b>,
26.9% owned – Outside backs just aren’t as good as center backs for consistency
and their ceiling is lower. After clean sheets, the strongest correlation for
defenders and PP90 were goals scored and CBI… things outside backs just don’t
get. Yedlin will get forward plenty and notch some assists, but they will be
sporadic and he won’t get many bonus points (as is true for outside backs in
general). I’m not opposed to selecting outside backs, but if I do they have to
be cheap. Yedlin isn’t. There are plenty of centerbacks with higher fantasy
ceilings than Yedlin at similar prices or cheaper.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Dylan Remick, </b>23.9%
owned – All this hype was because he looked to be starting at left back for a
couple games at the start of the season. Leo Gonzalez started for the Sounders
in yesterday’s scrimmage and is well on his way to recovery. Remick might not
even start in week 1 and could see a mass exodus and is a massive risk of price
drop.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Michael Harrington, </b>15.5%
owned – Same reasoning as Yedlin.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Sean Franklin, </b>9.8%
owned –<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>Same reasoning as Yedlin.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Omar Gonzalez, </b>7.2%
owned, He’s a great player and a great fantasy asset. His schedule just sucks
to start the season. It is so bad that he’s not in my side.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Seth Sinovic, </b>7.0%
owned – Same reasoning as Yedlin.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Midfielders</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Juninho, </b>17.7%
owned - Defensive midfielders suffer for the same reasoning as outside backs
relative to others within their position classification. Midfielder PP90 is
most correlated with goals, assists, key passes, crosses, and big chances
created. None of which are racked up by any defensive midfielders.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Adam Moffat, </b>15.7%
owned – He’s not a starter and is a waste of money. Either downgrade him to a
4.0 player or upgrade him to someone who will start.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Jimenez, </b>14.2%
owned – Same reasoning as Moffat.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Rodney Wallace, </b>13.3%
owned –<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>He’s still recovering from
injury and won’t start the season in the first 11. He might not even gain back
his starter role as Portland brought in Steve Zakuani (also injured) and Gaston
Fernandez, who shifted wide left earlier this week when Valeri subbed on.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Michael Bradley, </b>11.8%
owned – He’s new to the league and his entire team got retooled in the
offseason. Strike one. He’s a deep-lying midfielder. Strike two. He costs
$10.0m. Strike three.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Ben Zemanski, </b>8.4%
owned – Same reasoning as Moffat.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Forwards</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Mike Magee, </b>25.8%
owned – I demand a lot of my forwards. They have to either be cheap (Plata,
Saad, Urruti) or be a creative force for their team to collect bonus points
(Keane, Henry, Higuain). Magee scores goals, which is nice. I don’t see him
repeating a 20+ goal season this time around and his bonus point generation is
lacking.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Robbie Keane, </b>17.1%
owned – Same reasoning as Gonzalez.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Jack McBean, </b>12.0%
owned – Same reasoning as Moffat.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Connor Casey, </b>9.7%
owned – Same reasoning as Moffat.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Jack McInerney, </b>7.8%
owned – Same reasoning as Magee.</div>
Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-86549827977163118522014-02-24T18:12:00.001-08:002014-02-24T18:12:10.633-08:00PP90 and finding undervalued players<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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I found some time to actually work with some data and do
some analysis! This post will combine two ideas: PP90 and finding players who
were underpriced based on last season’s production. PP90 is simply a player’s
total points divided by the total minutes they played last season. I adjusted
for players who had their position reclassified (e.g. removed clean sheet
points for Mike Magee) and also added back points from Big Chances Fluffed. The
data does not adjust for second assists, as I just don’t have time to manually
enter that data (Valeri, who had the most second assists last season, saw his
PP90 increase by less than 5%). All data is from the regular season, as I feel
playoffs are such a crapshoot as teams play differently in the do-or-die
situation.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking at undervalued players is the bulk of this post, as
I believe it is more important than looking at raw PP90 because of salary cap
restrictions. I ran a regression that looked to see what PP90 a player with a
given price is expected to get (e.g a player priced at 11.0 should get about
6.25 PP90). The column labeled “difference between expected and actual” is the
important one for these purposes. The larger the number, the more undervalued
the player is.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There’s a catch. PP90 assumes that the player played every
minute and that their rate of return remained the same. We know this is
absolutely untrue for a few reasons: players get subbed in/out so don’t play 90
minutes, and maintaining a constant rate of return is basically so improbable
that we know that assumption is wrong. However, this is the best way to compare
players because it normalizes our measure of comparison so we are comparing
apples to apples. We must couple this knowledge with our knowledge of who is
starting (Keane), who is a backup that will get starts when someone else is
injured or away on national team duty (Opara), and who comes on (Alhassan) and
off (Rosales) as substitutes.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If a cell is highlighted in red, it is within the top 10% for all players for that category. So, Robbie Keane is in the top 10% for both PP90 and how undervalued he is, whereas Diego Valeri is only in the top 10% for PP90. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">FIRST TIER – priced
10.5 to 11.0</b> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgckHfrFAUEFHt_TQ45W7RO5shyphenhyphen1mJh8w9LIdsVVvGpHwryZNRhGiOF8CXwAXfAzIqJl1ZLLtwgQYsXTxQaBFhX7X7YOIHrE2Bf2jsI-vkWi40POZaYqo0IOMtPt6Qp1kHWD_uEDdXU1fM/s1600/tier+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgckHfrFAUEFHt_TQ45W7RO5shyphenhyphen1mJh8w9LIdsVVvGpHwryZNRhGiOF8CXwAXfAzIqJl1ZLLtwgQYsXTxQaBFhX7X7YOIHrE2Bf2jsI-vkWi40POZaYqo0IOMtPt6Qp1kHWD_uEDdXU1fM/s1600/tier+1.png" /></a></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is where we want to start to build our team; the big
guns who will often wear the captain’s armband. Even though these players are
the most expensive in the game, many are still underpriced. Robbie Keane and
Landon Donovan lead the charge, but shouldn’t lead many lines to start the
season because LA have a couple bye weeks and a bunch of away games to start
the season. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Those of you who followed my blog last year know how much I
value the consistency of bonus points over the more sporadic points from goals
and assists. I recommended Higuain over and over again in the lead up to and
throughout the season and will do so again, though he is more appropriately
priced this year. Valeri and Zusi are the other players I highly recommend in
the top tier. I’ve also had Brad Davis in and out of my lineup to start the
season, mostly because of Houston’s favorable schedule to start the season.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">SECOND TIER – priced
9.5 to 10.0</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfLP-g37UlUrs_0a1FWmHxopDIrylPGc4i9p8hrKurDUH9ci9T-7XpNQbvyO7JMazp9EFkg3fHFSELwqGN3H3kUUkkUqsOQeC_2KHNBw7Gbsqz6eJoe-jIP-sCJYJbYFuyNRGbkdq_0xA/s1600/tier+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfLP-g37UlUrs_0a1FWmHxopDIrylPGc4i9p8hrKurDUH9ci9T-7XpNQbvyO7JMazp9EFkg3fHFSELwqGN3H3kUUkkUqsOQeC_2KHNBw7Gbsqz6eJoe-jIP-sCJYJbYFuyNRGbkdq_0xA/s1600/tier+2.png" /></a></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is an interesting tier to pick from. A lot of the
players have big reputations and are better players in real life than they are
in the fantasy game. Olave, Collin, and Martins are the three players from this
tier that I’ve considered for my team. I’ve gone with Martins for my team due
to Seattle’s favorable schedule. Wondolowski is another interesting player
because last season’s fantasy output was hampered by him playing on a broken
foot most of the year. He’s a bit of a poacher and doesn’t produce a ton of
bonus points, but I think he’s not as over-valued as these stats suggest.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">THIRD TIER – priced
8.5 to 9.0</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOEVcV44zVNgODxIMjXj7gnbP_bd7G0gxpHR7LV7AH-C5joxwi83Mus-Vl6OxhlGF_7YsJZp8zpLjKLJ85zycuvDJ1JCkq3fzhYOh7sGojho4S1NckyYA9oer-xFbtq185L4tACISZkjA/s1600/tier+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOEVcV44zVNgODxIMjXj7gnbP_bd7G0gxpHR7LV7AH-C5joxwi83Mus-Vl6OxhlGF_7YsJZp8zpLjKLJ85zycuvDJ1JCkq3fzhYOh7sGojho4S1NckyYA9oer-xFbtq185L4tACISZkjA/s1600/tier+3.png" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>There’s a lot of interesting options in this tier and most
are pretty appropriate priced. Even with Wallace losing his clean sheet points
because of his position reclassification, he is way undervalued. He is injured
to start the season and Portland’s signings might see him left out of the 11
even if he were healthy. Le Toux and Futty are also possible victims of
reworked rosters. I’m going with a strong backline this year with centerbacks
who score goals and rack up CBIs. I have Chad Marshall and Matt Hedges in my
team at the moment while Okugo and Bernardez have been in and out. I also am
looking closely at Kenny Miller as I think he’ll play a bigger role with Camilo
gone.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">FOURTH TIER – priced
7.5 to 8.0</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj43ReaHVFIaUvVoXg_3cugbQrlVLW-J2whVmcVcYukJuZJcwBzQ8LJg6B4Kr4ysmZgVWhmCVZoUgU5Ej-Phk5HN3VylR1_KCUItQEz6edbft8_y0NBmF2wcklInrB7JTMx0DxW3V2TxKc/s1600/tier+4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj43ReaHVFIaUvVoXg_3cugbQrlVLW-J2whVmcVcYukJuZJcwBzQ8LJg6B4Kr4ysmZgVWhmCVZoUgU5Ej-Phk5HN3VylR1_KCUItQEz6edbft8_y0NBmF2wcklInrB7JTMx0DxW3V2TxKc/s1600/tier+4.png" /></a></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is the tier you will either ignore completely or have a
bunch of players on your roster depending on the general strategy you take: a
bunch of solid players or several players from the first two tiers and a bunch
of players from fifth tier or below. This is where you want to take a risk or
two, in my opinion and many of these players have the potential for much higher
returns than they saw last year. Salinas is one of the most underrated players
in the league and his style of play is conducive to fantasy… if he can stay
healthy. Lots of these players have changed teams (Rosales, Hurtado, Cooper,
Beitashour) or have their minutes in danger due to new signings (Traore,
Michel, Casey, Neagle). I like to avoid such situations until we can see who is
the first choice and how their role looks to contribute in fantasy terms.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">FIFTH TIER – priced
6.5 to 7.0</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4FFhs_ul7AGBNz8xQkg3Nhbwxfhy3ys2cW7cZeeKMtwHWyEYDnbqSVxXnk3hXMmOVvHnvHsdJZMhbGZPve7mMBLbZHvm_lRkuPVycrCNzadqwHoHceJLu6PDe75hc90o5znVBb5fSsR8/s1600/tier+5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4FFhs_ul7AGBNz8xQkg3Nhbwxfhy3ys2cW7cZeeKMtwHWyEYDnbqSVxXnk3hXMmOVvHnvHsdJZMhbGZPve7mMBLbZHvm_lRkuPVycrCNzadqwHoHceJLu6PDe75hc90o5znVBb5fSsR8/s1600/tier+5.png" /></a></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The budget starters. Don’t really want to start most of
these guys, but don’t really have a choice. There’s a lot of potential value to
be had in this group, if these guys can lock down minutes. Ike Opara is the
obvious standout, but he isn’t a starter until Besler goes to the national team
(at which point I’ll grab him). Barklage, Saad, Plata, Osorio, Duka all look
like great plays this year if they get some serious minutes. Of those, Duka
looks the most nailed on and is in my team. Saad is also in my team at the moment
as my one risky player who might not start.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I want to make a point or two while discussing this tier, as
most of these players are outside backs or defensive midfielders. Avoid them
both. Defensive midfielders are almost always overvalued in the fantasy game
and their ceiling simply isn’t high enough to warrant inclusion. 2-4 points is
a pretty normal return for these guys, which doesn’t cut it for me. Outside
backs also aren’t worth it when compared to center backs. Aside from clean
sheets, goals and CBI had the highest correlation with PP90 for defenders,
which are the categories center backs score higher in than outside backs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">SIXTH TIER – priced
6.0 and below</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I did not include these players in this analysis because
there are very few starters within this group. That said, there are always
players in this group who will be starters for chunks of the season. A good way
to keep up with these potential bargain basement finds is to <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyMLS">read and participate on reddit</a>.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-89547465035547478812014-02-10T22:20:00.002-08:002014-02-10T22:20:40.239-08:00Why looking at just overall points from last season is a terrible strategy.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Every year around this time I see people getting into the
discussions of player X over player Y. People try to use stats to back up their
claims (rightly so) but don’t understand why some stats are better and more
valuable than others. So, I’m just going to bluntly say this: total points is a
garbage stat to use.
</div>
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Let me make the disclaimer that this article is aimed at
people who will take an active managing their teams and are willing to look a
bit deeper at some stats. Why? Because we need to look at multiple stats and
factors about why a player is worth owning. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Here’s the first three questions we need to answer to start
narrowing down our list of potential players for our fantasy teams.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Is this player a starter?</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>What was this player’s PP90 or PPG?</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Did this player change positions in real life or
as classified in the fantasy game?</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">“Is the player a
starter?”</b> is the most important question to ask. If the player isn’t a
starter, they won’t be earning points. Not only do they miss out on the basic
points from just playing in a game or at least 60 minutes, but they are also
missing out on opportunities to score points in any other way that requires
them to actually be playing. Last year I took some risks with my lineup to
start the season and ended up with a couple players who ended up not being
starters, had weak scores the first couple weeks, and was forced to use my
wildcard way too early in the season.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">“What was this player’s
PP90 or PPG?” </b>is the meat and potatoes of player analysis. Why is this
better than looking at a player’s total points? Because it takes into account
time lost due to international duty and injuries (yes I know that some players
have perpetual injury issues). As an example, we’ll look at similarly priced Austin
Berry (144 points, 3060 minutes played) and Jermaine Taylor (120 points, 2142
minutes played). Yes, Austin Berry earned 22 points more, but he played almost
1,000 minutes more over the season. If we just look at last year’s regular
season PPG, Austin Berry scored 0.4 fewer PPG. If we extrapolate that over the
season, it is 13 points lower score than what Jermaine Taylor would have scored
(assuming his production per game stayed the same). If we do that same analysis
while looking at PP90 instead of PPG, the difference is twice as large. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Now, we have to pay attention to which measure to use. Some
players almost always are subbed out of the game, so it doesn’t make sense to
use PP90 for those players. Last year, Mauro Rosales was a perfect example of
this as his PP90 was a whopping 1.7 points higher than his PPG. However, I
don’t think he lasted a full 90 minutes in any game all season long. So, we
know that it makes more sense to utilize his PPG instead of his PP90.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">“Did this player
change positions in real life or as classified in the fantasy game?” </b>is
another important question to ask and the answer can either hurt or help a
player’s fantasy production. Amobi Okugo was classified as a midfielder last
year but actually played as a center back. Because of that, he missed out on 33
points he would have earned if classified as a defender, as he is this year. On
the flip side, Rodney Wallace was classified as a defender but played as a midfielder
and earned 30 clean sheet points that he won’t have the potential to earn this
year. These position reclassifications (as well as changes to the scoring
system) are taken into account in my upcoming tables that show PP90. There are
also cases of players who will play a different position this year than they
did last year. Landon Donovan looks like he will be one of them, as The Bruce
said that Donovan will likely be pushed back into midfield this year. It is
impossible to quantify how that might change his fantasy production, but I’m
willing to bet it will be worse this year than last year, simply because of the
actual position change.</div>
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<br /></div>
Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-60553265137710849752014-02-10T22:09:00.001-08:002014-02-11T11:11:33.296-08:00Beginner's guide to fantasy MLS<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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The old beginner’s guide is a couple years old now and
sorely out of date, especially with the rules changes this season. So I’ve
updated bits and pieces of it this year to make it applicable to this year’s
game.<br />
<br />
<b>Rule 1: Read and understand the rules of the game.</b><br />
This cannot be overstated. The quickest way to become a decent fantasy manager
is to simply understand how your team will score points. Understand the
scoring, understand the deadlines, understand how substitutions come into play,
understand how the captain’s armband works.<br />
<br />
<b>Rule 2: Don’t forget about your team.</b><br />
I see it happen all the time; people select their team and then just leave it
alone. You will not win if you do this. Injuries happen, players fall out of
favor, the national team comes calling, your star player’s team doesn’t have a
game this week and you left the captain’s armband on him. These are all things
that can kill your chances of doing well in fantasy. You have to pay at least a
little bit of attention to your team so you can make appropriate substitutions
and transfers. You can always check the<a href="http://mlsfantasyboss.com/?page_id=364#NGDGW"> upcoming fixtures table over at MLSfantasyboss</a> to make sure you’re staying on top of that.<br />
<br />
There are a couple of websites that track injuries that I check the night
before deadline. Neither have been updated for this season, but are valuable
resources once the season kicks off.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/mls/injuries">http://sports.yahoo.com/mls/injuries</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.mlssoccer.com/mls-injury-report">http://www.mlssoccer.com/mls-injury-report</a><br />
<br />
<b>Rule 3: Don’t choose defensive midfielders.</b><br />
Defensive midfielders are a complete waste of space in your fantasy roster.
Players like Alonso, Beckerman, Larentowicz, Juninho, etc. are all important
players for their team in real life. None of them will ever find a spot in my
fantasy team because their primary role is to win the ball, not score and set
up goals. <br />
<br />
<b>Rule 4: Don’t fall for early-season over-performance.</b><br />
There are always a few players who score a goal/assist or two in the first
couple games and everyone jumps on board and transfers them in. Sometimes this
is the right move, most of the time it’s not. If they weren’t on our radar
before the season, chances are their early returns will not continue. Last year
had a prime example of this: Jack Mcinerney came out of the gates strong
racking up points and managers transferring him in. Then he completely
disappeared and did nothing the second half of the season, but a lot of
managers were still playing him.<br />
<br />
This rule has a bit more leeway than the first two, as sometimes it might be a
good idea to bring in a forward or attacking midfielder early if it looks like
they will explode right out of the gate.<br />
<br />
<b>Rule 5: Pick the known quantities</b><br />
This one seems obvious and most people have it down. If you’re new to MLS and
know a player’s name, there’s probably a good reason for that. Players like Zusi,
Keane, and Valeri are pretty safe bets that anyone should feel comfortable
enough picking them. <br />
<br />
<b>Rule 6: Don’t pick a bunch of unknown quantities.</b><br />
This is essentially the inverse of rule 5. Every season there are a few
big-name transfers into MLS and a crop of rookies that get a lot of hype and
people get too excited and pick those players for their fantasy team. Often,
first-time MLS players take a bit of time to get used to the style of play and
gel with their team. Even though a player looks like a quality signing on
paper, they tend to take a bit of time to adjust to their new teammates and
level of physicality of MLS.<br />
<br />
<b>Rule 7: Pay attention to a player’s actual position.</b><br />
There are always times where the game lists a player in a position they aren’t
actually playing in. Sometimes this works in our favor, and sometimes it
doesn’t. Players playing in a more advanced position than they are listed as
can add opportunities to score offensive points but still collect clean sheet
points from the positions they are listed as. Last year’s examples are Rodney
Wallace (listed as DEF but really played as a winger) and Mike Magee (listed as
MID but really played as a FWD). Time will tell on this year’s out of position
players, but a speculative list can be <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyMLS/comments/1x3y73/list_of_oop_players_for_2014/">found here.</a></div>
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<br />
<b>Rule 8: Don’t wear your team colors.</b><br />
Aside from rule 2, this is probably the most common mistake I see fantasy
managers make. If you are a fan of San Jose, you can’t just pick 4 San Jose
players while completely ignoring everyone wearing an LA Galaxy shirt. You’ll
be missing out on a lot of really good players from LA and might be letting
your fandom blind you to how bad Steven Lenhart really is for fantasy soccer.<br />
<br />
<b>Rule 9: Players generally perform better at home.</b><br />
It is a well-known fact that teams play differently based on whether they are
home or away. Away teams play more defensively, which oddly means that the home
team is more likely to collect a clean sheet and also score goals. Keep this in
mind when selecting your squad. You obviously want to start your superstars,
but your midrange and cheap options should take into account whether they are
home or away this week.<br />
<br />
<b>Rule 10: Use your transfers wisely.</b><br />
We are allotted a ton of transfers in the MLS fantasy game, 2 per week
if you average it out. It generally is a good idea to look ahead a few weeks
when deciding to bring in a player to make sure that the upcoming fixtures are
favorable and he will be likely to produce fantasy returns.<br />
<br />
However, sometimes there is a single fixture that is just too good to pass up.
With so many transfers allotted, it probably isn’t a bad idea to bring in a
Keane, Valeri, or Higuain for a single game if they are playing at home against
a team like Chivas who concede a lot of goals on the road.</div>
Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-41613834479942796632014-02-09T12:55:00.002-08:002014-02-09T12:55:31.128-08:00Welcome to the 2014 season!The 2014 season is here! There's a few rule changes and player positions have been updated (for the most part) to the positions they actually play. My pre-season analysis will take these things into account to provide the best possible projections for the upcoming season. I'll be updating my Beginner's Guide to Fantasy Soccer sometime in the next day or two, so watch for that post. Tables of stats with some commentary about how to use them will start rolling out this week. The following week we'll look at finding value to maximize our points potential and I'll pen my thoughts about gaining squad value for the start of the season.<br />
<br />
A lot of this discussion is already underway at <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyMLS">reddit.com/r/fantasymls</a> so feel free to study up and join the discussion there.Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-933920483561182112013-08-04T16:53:00.000-07:002013-08-04T17:00:50.336-07:00Points Per 90: an alternate look at adjusting for different numbers of games played<br />
I was doing some research trying to pick my players for gameweek 24 and noticed Lamar Neagle's points per game was a mere 4.4. Something seemed very wrong and that this measurement was extremely under-valuing his production. I looked at some other players: Camilo, Villareal, Rodney Wallace, and all of them seemed to have PPG much lower than what I expected them to be. Most of the players who I found to have a large difference between their PPG and their PP90 were players who have had several appearances as substitutes.<br />
<br />
So, I decided to nerd out about it and put all of the points and minutes for all players in the game with 500+ minutes into a spreadsheet. I calculated how many points per minute a player scored up to the all-star game (so only results up through week 23 are included here). I simply multiplied those by 90 to find how many points they would score if the player scored at that rate over an entire game. The tables below show the results by the three outfield positions.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-ujqOym6qws4MwgJqCbEuzY8fZnIU8UnVkW7prpVrP-ZVpHDL1B4OqA34zicof9A_9Bg1LGVFVk2Bnje1PD5-trBw27My3DxmR2QLB5t2jWtwUo4HjZ_vTT4zxUY9mDYa4cMtmH6yn1E/s1600/pp90+d.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-ujqOym6qws4MwgJqCbEuzY8fZnIU8UnVkW7prpVrP-ZVpHDL1B4OqA34zicof9A_9Bg1LGVFVk2Bnje1PD5-trBw27My3DxmR2QLB5t2jWtwUo4HjZ_vTT4zxUY9mDYa4cMtmH6yn1E/s640/pp90+d.png" width="640" /> </a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEhnuFVKS6kiYb6KJuZbqORxjrYLaDGNyhV1MNrIGm14EaodsnvOgvfTjEK499j_YjtAKBl_fUNmkVL-UkzOIoiVzowaLUWZemcJybcXFJ1ad-jfbGRS6BQRkgOypbMN6xsGux1I8LHzY/s1600/pp90+m.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEhnuFVKS6kiYb6KJuZbqORxjrYLaDGNyhV1MNrIGm14EaodsnvOgvfTjEK499j_YjtAKBl_fUNmkVL-UkzOIoiVzowaLUWZemcJybcXFJ1ad-jfbGRS6BQRkgOypbMN6xsGux1I8LHzY/s640/pp90+m.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM0-kSk9PE7bRRuv2nXCRqycdTYCJtmCSbAsyAutmABLMRK5-8H5LjvNEPkgQ26EulmGa1QFwAiEijzAtKwHZatdPNwFa6ihHxqYG7hP4cGSbJ56q28uMm74jHkGFB_hBxfi8mgQKZ_2s/s1600/pp90+f.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM0-kSk9PE7bRRuv2nXCRqycdTYCJtmCSbAsyAutmABLMRK5-8H5LjvNEPkgQ26EulmGa1QFwAiEijzAtKwHZatdPNwFa6ihHxqYG7hP4cGSbJ56q28uMm74jHkGFB_hBxfi8mgQKZ_2s/s640/pp90+f.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
There's a few things I want to talk about as potential uses of this data.<br />
<br />
First, we can see that simply judging a player by their total points might not be the best way to judge a player's scoring potential because they might simply have played more minutes than players below them in the total score rankings. Higuain drops 8 ranks when comparing his total score to his PP90 and 4 ranks when comparing his PPG to his PP90 (ignoring players with fewer than 500 minutes played). Okugo drops 15 ranks and 10 ranks for the respective methods of ranking. Michelle drops 11 and 2. There's a lot of players that have higher scores simply because they have played more minutes. This could be because some of other players that show highly in my PP90 are subs (and shouldn't be considered for fantasy unless they lock down a starting role), it could be that a team has played fewer games than other teams (Seattle played 4 fewer games than Colorado), or a player could have missed games due to injury or national team duty.<br />
<br />
Second, we can use the PP90 to try to find players flying under (or unrightly in) the radar. Players like Agudelo and Osorio have the potential to be great differentials for us. On the flip side, Okugo and Bieler are not nearly as good as their overall scores make them out to be. <br />
<br />
Third, injuries to players ahead of them might lead to the opportunity for some of these players to be sweet differential picks. Hector Jimenez, Soony Saad, Kalif Alhassan, Olmes Garcia, Warren Creavalle, all scream "PICK ME! PICK ME!" should they lock down a starting role. Saad is the closest of that bunch to be able to lay claim to that title and might already have that position in lockdown. Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-46712262654359977602013-06-28T20:13:00.001-07:002013-06-30T10:03:23.348-07:00Historical goal trends over the season: why the goals are about to temporarily dry up<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
A few weeks ago I espoused that the end of the goal drought
was here and we would be seeing plenty more goals in the coming weeks. Well, I
was right – in the short run. I want to give an updated and more informed idea
of what the historical trend is.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I have gone back through this season and each of the six
previous seasons and separated the games out into what would be considered a
“normal” week for fantasy, meaning I generally grouped games Wednesday through
Tuesday into one week (note: some instances required grouping multiple
Wednesday through Tuesdays together to get a reasonable amount of games
played). These breakdowns won’t be perfect, but they are decent enough for what
I am looking to accomplish. I then looked at how far away that week was to the
end of the season to adjust for the seasons that have had different numbers of
actual games and gameweeks. From there, I created a 5-week moving average for
the average number of goals scored for that week based on how many weeks it was
until the end of the season. I chose a 5-week moving average for the sake of
eliminating the variability from a single week’s potential for all favorable or
unfavorable matchups, injuries, international duty, etc.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This graph shows the gist of what has happened, on average, over
the last six seasons (excluding 2013). We are currently at 18 weeks remaining
in this season, or exactly where the peak is in the middle of the graph.
Historically, the goals tend to dry up over the next 5 weeks or so, to the
lowest scoring rate we observe. I expect to see a similar decrease in goals for
the next couple weeks as our current point for the last several weeks is way
above the norm for having this much time left in the season. However, I don’t
expect to reach the lows we see from a couple weeks ago, as that was also
extremely irregular based on the other six seasons’ data.</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1i18F4tVC9OknhQzz_OPCtx9McWRKxuX66Xz41SbwOUhG6iRkAAu3O0qc1NT7J9LkPM23elfvs2-rH3xopRfyQwi8x1IJfBZAmy80Ezi1ol-HPcufJLnz5hny8nKQAjabeTO0MmN401U/s481/GPG+5year+avg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1i18F4tVC9OknhQzz_OPCtx9McWRKxuX66Xz41SbwOUhG6iRkAAu3O0qc1NT7J9LkPM23elfvs2-rH3xopRfyQwi8x1IJfBZAmy80Ezi1ol-HPcufJLnz5hny8nKQAjabeTO0MmN401U/s320/GPG+5year+avg.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I also did the same procedure looking at the 5-year moving
average from the start of the season, instead of games until the end of the
season. It produces the same general trends: mediocre start, a dip around the
middle of the season, and then a rise as the playoff-battle heats up.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhze19ajR-hVklRnSNXnH36I2-_VNtjx6zp9Zlg9xD3ZA7Qr7hVSRo1faQJuusXNj8HwhCL1WU6nG2Fd1P_xKgl3XlkxsDoaYpeLmH5-TcB8YlT5d858t6uUQ8Ns6OxXmjpO3sWJKYsawE/s481/GPG+5year+avg+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhze19ajR-hVklRnSNXnH36I2-_VNtjx6zp9Zlg9xD3ZA7Qr7hVSRo1faQJuusXNj8HwhCL1WU6nG2Fd1P_xKgl3XlkxsDoaYpeLmH5-TcB8YlT5d858t6uUQ8Ns6OxXmjpO3sWJKYsawE/s320/GPG+5year+avg+2.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking at where we are in the cycle yields different
results based on whether we want to look at things from the start of the season
or work backwards from the end of the season. This is partially a result of the
fact that none of the previous 6 seasons gave me more than 30 fantasy weeks,
compared to this season’s 36. So, it makes sense to shift both of
our current season lines two or three weeks in the proper direction, which would put us right on the
first part of the downward slope for goal production.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Of course, this season could continue to be completely nuts
and disregard the general trends that the last six seasons experienced.
However, there is a significant enough system of peaks and troughs that I want
to at least consider that in my transfers and setting my rosters. If my choices
are playing my budget forward or my budget defender, I am going to choose the
defender every time over the next couple weeks until we can expect production
to increase during the final run-in.<br />
<br />
Here's what the graphs look like for each individual year. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPCaBEwfDR7GeJHEQcF0wGV30mxeeHeMQXtgBi-OTOpKZMkf9Tf73AYqxJ5RqOaD-Dn31_Zvsz6R-4OXPb_zcXPaqBAZgI_GFtxxdYBrNTkIyRIHqUZOMXTlYgf-fXqOXjlwUiOUA2Xuo/s481/2007.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPCaBEwfDR7GeJHEQcF0wGV30mxeeHeMQXtgBi-OTOpKZMkf9Tf73AYqxJ5RqOaD-Dn31_Zvsz6R-4OXPb_zcXPaqBAZgI_GFtxxdYBrNTkIyRIHqUZOMXTlYgf-fXqOXjlwUiOUA2Xuo/s320/2007.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCgFno4aIlda0yqHmnxvkbmrkk79BPmjVNE3kw3xhieN18xqjlVXDTjmTdKQGScnjWKhHMuqEFLChrztSDE3J_hWjyk4b-xqp-Ksov_dVPtY0Z6dmQCWfC5Kt6vOrq1zNtnp1hxi7DsGA/s481/2008.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCgFno4aIlda0yqHmnxvkbmrkk79BPmjVNE3kw3xhieN18xqjlVXDTjmTdKQGScnjWKhHMuqEFLChrztSDE3J_hWjyk4b-xqp-Ksov_dVPtY0Z6dmQCWfC5Kt6vOrq1zNtnp1hxi7DsGA/s320/2008.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmVZ25Alrb0ieXDS3-z5wlJJu5sk8SHLO6rs73-1Ik-IcBCiIcuZ-7LiIQJzssxiQAb1w5GecangZ416lP7PgQd4CkUnqVxgBKqeSQmwx7Ytx0nFUmdIq8C1Q7A7ylpttGtWOXv9XhkFk/s481/2009.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmVZ25Alrb0ieXDS3-z5wlJJu5sk8SHLO6rs73-1Ik-IcBCiIcuZ-7LiIQJzssxiQAb1w5GecangZ416lP7PgQd4CkUnqVxgBKqeSQmwx7Ytx0nFUmdIq8C1Q7A7ylpttGtWOXv9XhkFk/s320/2009.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUds_avIG_MKmk_9_DNQgP4sVmIHuRCA6piKhB5PUuqMVKxAj4cU4EdWdMA9rEIpncx0SwERNtSIhgBF0mhuGTAEswdAKPiQ64GCfPUo7hDmzztdan5-N_Jjz1UamhGkT9irWfUrzwuVM/s481/2010.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUds_avIG_MKmk_9_DNQgP4sVmIHuRCA6piKhB5PUuqMVKxAj4cU4EdWdMA9rEIpncx0SwERNtSIhgBF0mhuGTAEswdAKPiQ64GCfPUo7hDmzztdan5-N_Jjz1UamhGkT9irWfUrzwuVM/s320/2010.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipSbOMXcDHiXApKy9c2u7nXd-cmnmxqfeZKloytfI_jD4nCcPFptAGcWeqd0vm8LRIEmoz2PamJM9AIJb-gV3dxTlGWMWIiTnhuaTkicNbvGoTFJkxyFWPEOVzInpUOIehI1fPKmcg9PQ/s481/2011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipSbOMXcDHiXApKy9c2u7nXd-cmnmxqfeZKloytfI_jD4nCcPFptAGcWeqd0vm8LRIEmoz2PamJM9AIJb-gV3dxTlGWMWIiTnhuaTkicNbvGoTFJkxyFWPEOVzInpUOIehI1fPKmcg9PQ/s320/2011.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit8zjCCwSnTCzqpFo3S0Y_fP3PhTMLRqVIRcqUvTJ1xaPSfcAklrTCxr24VKtjctr1B0qQjncZfSLch0ANYP5BtmfxueMMvdmSGEAxRdp-qS0ECnfY3CrNcZEv1TWcqrJIVrul4od1D5c/s481/2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit8zjCCwSnTCzqpFo3S0Y_fP3PhTMLRqVIRcqUvTJ1xaPSfcAklrTCxr24VKtjctr1B0qQjncZfSLch0ANYP5BtmfxueMMvdmSGEAxRdp-qS0ECnfY3CrNcZEv1TWcqrJIVrul4od1D5c/s320/2012.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-85293001249206642042013-06-24T20:05:00.000-07:002013-06-24T20:05:19.645-07:00Goals for/against projections - weeks 18-21Nothing too insightful this go around. Here's some tables that show each team's projected goals scored and projected goals conceded for the next couple of gameweeks. There's no doubles to worry about for the time being but plenty of blanks to work around.<br />
<br />
<b>Projected goals conceded:</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-718GTxRwvojbFsjHWZMbNTFcvmSze3F2UE3R3gMSkWg-w52azI3C_AOE5hYu4SJAsjvFqBJHnMUjNxlstVk9IW7YrcWb_GxfuFh9kKoOhN0TJCvlQMKuQY5f4QOHsGQYi_NEKQgtalc/s1600/Goals+against+18+to+21.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-718GTxRwvojbFsjHWZMbNTFcvmSze3F2UE3R3gMSkWg-w52azI3C_AOE5hYu4SJAsjvFqBJHnMUjNxlstVk9IW7YrcWb_GxfuFh9kKoOhN0TJCvlQMKuQY5f4QOHsGQYi_NEKQgtalc/s400/Goals+against+18+to+21.png" width="337" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Projected goals scored:</b> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGh3QVrpil2-dI1FJ3hGeZ81yGdodxvZPZGdb2EZP09VQ458dsoCpFZIi_j381AG-0d3XoTnIJ_1Rcxv5fsu5rJ02lQPjOe5o0AkOHGvEiNFGrcjdRmeRTizmm4sh_DkmnPe1SAXSYTng/s1600/Goals+for+18+to+21.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGh3QVrpil2-dI1FJ3hGeZ81yGdodxvZPZGdb2EZP09VQ458dsoCpFZIi_j381AG-0d3XoTnIJ_1Rcxv5fsu5rJ02lQPjOe5o0AkOHGvEiNFGrcjdRmeRTizmm4sh_DkmnPe1SAXSYTng/s400/Goals+for+18+to+21.png" width="333" /></a></div>
<br />Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-72849387010199659812013-06-10T18:21:00.001-07:002013-06-10T19:49:16.848-07:00Differential discussion: weeks 16-21<br />
Alright, so we’re at a point in the
season where almost all of us need to make up some ground on whoever
we’re chasing. We won’t do that by making the safe play with all 11 of
our starters. It’s time to take some risks, but who stands to benefit
from their upcoming schedule? I’m going to explore potential
differential picks for weeks 17-22. Keep in mind that these are
potential differentials – they are designed to be high-risk /
high-reward picks.<br />
<br />
1. Camilo – At time of writing, Camilo was
owned by just 3.8 percent of managers. Vancouver are projected to score
the most goals in week 16, fifth most in week 18, third most in week 20,
and second most in week 21. Going into the season, Camilo was rated as
the 8th best value for all forwards, and I think he represents amazing
value (priced at $7.8 at time of writing) over the next 6 weeks.<br />
<br />
2.
Graham Zusi – How the hell can he be a differential, everyone and their
mother will pick him back up after the back-to-back blank? Exactly,
EVERYONE will be grabbing him again, despite the fact that SKC is
projected almost exactly average goals scored from weeks 17-21. What I’m
proposing (and am going to do for my own team), is to ignore Zusi and
spend the money elsewhere.<br />
<br />
3. Patrice Bernier / Justin Mapp – Montreal are
projected to score the highest average goals per game from weeks 18-22
(Note: blank in week 17). Neither are owned at more than 10 percent at
time of writing. Both have had stretches of the season where they were
fantastic, and they could both easily return to that form over this
span.<br />
<br />
4. David Ferreira / Blas Perez – Owned by 5 and 0.5 percent
respectively of all managers. Dallas are projected to score the third
most total goals from weeks 17-21. These are the engines of the Dallas
attack, despite everyone clamoring about Michel (mostly because he’s
playing out of position). Michel will be owned by tons of managers, but
Ferreira and Perez won’t be.<br />
<br />
5. Robbie Keane – As of week 15,
only 15 managers in the top 1000 owned Keane. I imagine plenty will be
bringing him back over the next several weeks, but plenty won’t be
able/willing to do so. Lots of people have significant gains tied up in
Jac Mac (who is still a good choice over weeks 17-21), and lots of
people will be using their transfers to fix their teams after week 16 as
every week from 17-21 has 3 teams missing a game each week. Keane won’t
be as large a differential as those above, but enough to be mentioned
because of how incredibly good LA’s attacking returns are projected to
be through week 21 (most goals scored weeks 17-21, with most goals
scored in week 17 and 20 and 5th most in week 19). Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-13892344788441343062013-05-28T17:23:00.000-07:002013-05-28T17:23:03.444-07:00Goals scored and clean sheets: comparing historical averages to the season so far<!--[if !mso]>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The trend of scoring well below the historical average
finally ended. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, defenders were king
and forwards were more or less ignored. Many players opted to play 5-4-1 or
4-5-1 formations and lamented the fact that defenders were scoring far too many
points relative to forwards. Three weeks ago, that all changed.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There were 2.86 goals scored per game over the last three
weeks. (If we scored at that rate over all games this season, there would be 44
more goals scored this season than what have actually been scored). That brings
the season average up to 2.48 GPG, still below the historical average. Over the
last four years, we saw 2.57 GPG. If we simply apply the historical GPG to this
season’s games played, we would have 303 goals - 10 more than we experienced.
That isn’t too large to suggest any huge shift for our strategy. However, if we
ignore the last three weeks and just look at how far behind we were during the
first 10 weeks, we really see why I think it is time to divest from our
defenders.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Over the first 10 weeks of the season, there were a measly 2.33
GPG (193 goals in 83 games). If we apply the historical rate of 2.57 GPG to
those 83 games, we would have had 213 goals – 20 more than what we saw. That’s 100
points from goals alone and about 150 if you include assists at the historical
rate. Most of those points would go to forwards. We’ll assume that about 60%
(90 points) of them will go to forwards, 30% to midfielders, and 10% for
defenders.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A mere 150 points doesn’t seem like it would make much a
difference… and it really isn’t a colossal change. The big change comes when we
look at the clean sheets. For this portion, I will assume teams use 4 defenders
and a goalie, for 5 total “defenders”. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So far this season, defenses have kept an astonishing 26.7%
of possible clean sheets. Incredible. Through the first 10 weeks of the season,
it was an even better 28.3% of possible clean sheets. Over the last four years,
the rate of clean sheets is 13.7%. That means that teams so far this season are
keeping clean sheets about twice as often as they have over the last four
years. If we apply the historical rate of clean sheets to this season, there
would be 32 fewer clean sheets this season than we’ve seen in reality (63). 32
clean sheets, times 4 points for a clean sheet, times 5 defenders = 640 more
points earned by defenders this year from clean sheets than what would be
expected based on historical averages. And just for fun we’ll add in the points
lost (-1) for conceding two goals for each of the 20 more goals we would expect
from historical rates and we get another 50 points that defenders have scored
this year that they wouldn’t have. That is a total of 690 points defenders have
earned this season above what is normal. That is HUGE and equates to 7.26 more
points for each starting defender/keeper than what they were expected to earn.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now I’ll apply these expected average adjustments from above
(+2.37 for forwards and -7.06 for defenders) to the average score of the top 10
and top 25 for each position.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What to make from all of this? Defenders have been vastly
outperforming historical averages; forwards have been slightly underperforming
historical averages; and if we apply those averages to what has actually
happened, top defenders should still be expected to outperform top forwards,
but not by nearly as much as they have been this season. The assumption that
those extra goals would be evenly distributed amongst all starting forwards is
a bad assumption, because we would expect guys like Wondo, Henry, and Higuain
to outscore guys like Tristen Bowen and Lionard Pajoy.</div>
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Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-54938191646871656232013-05-20T22:22:00.001-07:002013-05-20T22:22:54.894-07:00Projections week 13-17 <b>Projected goals against:</b><br />
If you missed the explaination for these calculations the first time around, I basically just take the average of the team's goals conceded and their opponent's goals scored based on who is home and away. Those highlighted in red are the gameweeks where the team is predicted to concede less than one goal and are high chance of a clean sheet.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9QoxxN03fFVDKfZiQbVhWBjcXRPFj7-48MGoM4SQDj3cUGw25jpR8ZWips7WFxSNl5PO7uYC0Jx68QUuN46vWaa76WuGGxGf1l7Ea_wp_0D9qZezXZcTV-yLWE8m0YkDGdkfAwBwmOm8/s1600/goals+against+5week.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9QoxxN03fFVDKfZiQbVhWBjcXRPFj7-48MGoM4SQDj3cUGw25jpR8ZWips7WFxSNl5PO7uYC0Jx68QUuN46vWaa76WuGGxGf1l7Ea_wp_0D9qZezXZcTV-yLWE8m0YkDGdkfAwBwmOm8/s400/goals+against+5week.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>Projected goals for:</b><br />
Basically, the same calculation as above, only calculated for the team's goals scored. The cells highlighted in red are games where the team is projected to score more than 1.5 goals.<b> </b><br />
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<b>Total goals scored during 5-week span:</b> <br />
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<br />Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-76447404408744491852013-05-20T21:55:00.000-07:002013-05-20T21:55:08.261-07:00Goals for/against home/awayWe are now at a point in the season where every team has played at least 5 games at home at 5 away. That is the point where I'm going to start using data based only on this season to project goals scored and conceded. I'll share the next 5-week projections in another post, but this one will just show some raw data for each team on how many goals they score and concede per game both home and away. I've ranked them from best to worst:<br />
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<br />Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-47325993736950761302013-05-16T14:24:00.000-07:002013-05-16T14:24:38.365-07:00Week 15: fail to prepare, prepare to fail.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
The double-gameweek bacchanalia of week 11 is over and our
rosters are locked for the morning-after bloody mary of week 12’s Philly/LA
double. Weeks 13 and 14 aren’t anything special but weeks 15 and 16 loom on the
horizon. If you happen to still have your wildcard, use it between weeks 15 and
16 and take advantage of good matchups between now and then. For the rest of us
that used our wildcard early (week 3 for me), we need to start planning NOW.
Week 15 has 9 teams without a game and week 16 has 5 teams without a game and 4
teams with a double. Oh yeah, then there's a bunch of players gone for international duty to boot.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Week 15 players:</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Chicago</b>
(vs. Portland)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Columbus</b>
(at Philly)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">DC</b>
(at New England)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">LA</b>
(at RSL)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">New
England</b> (vs. DC)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Philly</b>
(vs. Columbus)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Portland</b>
(at Chicago)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">RSL</b>
(vs. LA)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Seattle</b>
(vs. Vancouver)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Vancouver
</b>(at Seattle)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Week 16 feast:</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> <b>
</b></span></span></span><b>Colorado</b> (vs. San Jose and at Chicago)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> <b>
</b></span></span></span><b>Montreal</b> (at Columbus and vs. Houston)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b>Portland </b>(vs. Dallas and at LA)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b>Vancouver</b> (vs. New England and vs. Chivas)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Week 16 famine:</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b>New York</b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><b>Philly</b></div>
<b>
</b><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;">
<b><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>RSL</b></div>
<b>
</b><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;">
<b><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Seattle</b></div>
<b>
</b><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;">
<b><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>SKC</b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u>So, what teams do we target to bring in and when do we do
it?</u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Targets to transfer in before week 13 deadline:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">RSL</b> and <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">New England</b> – both teams have 3 home
games in a row in weeks 13, 14, and 15. I like New England’s defense as the
best target for transfers this week as they are projected to keep 2 clean
sheets out of 3 based on this season’s goals scored/conceded home and away for
them and their opponents. I plan to double-up on New England defenders. RSL’s
prospects on defense don’t look as good, with their only projected clean sheet
coming in week 13. On the other side of the ball, RSL players are more
attractive and are projected to score more goals than anyone over the coming 3
weeks (tied with LA and Columbus). RSL do have a blank in week 16, so limit
yourself to a maximum of 2 RSL players. If you don’t like either RSL or the
Revs, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">LA </b>is where you want to invest
as they don’t have a blank week during this stretch and project decent enough
returns.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Targets to transfer in before week 14 deadline:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">RSL</b> and <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">New England</b> players are still fine
targets here. However, the best targets at this point are <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Columbus</b> attackers. Columbus have two home games surrounding an
away trip to face a leaky Philly defense. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Seattle</b>
are projected to score the most goals in weeks 14 and 15 combined and are
projected to keep a clean sheet in week 15 so they are worth a look - beware of
their blank in week 16. Aside from that, there really aren’t many favorable
matchups. You could look at <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Vancouver </b>who
are the only team who play 4 games during weeks 14-16 (two home games in week
16 look tempting). My plan for week 14 is to make just a single transfer and
roll the other over into week 15. There aren’t many players I’m excited about
in week 14 who play in week 15, and it also allows us the flexibility to shift
money around in week 15 and helps avoid potential injury/suspension issues.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Targets to transfer in before week 15 deadline:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At this point, a lot depends on who you have and how you’re
set up for week 16. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Portland </b>and <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Vancouver </b>are the only two teams to
play in week 15 and have a double in week 16. Vancouver does have a blank in
week 17, so I’m not crazy about them as transfer targets after this week. Portland
and Colorado are the teams with doubles in 16 and no blank in 17, so Portland
players are where I’d look to first – might even triple up on Timbers by week
16. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Columbus </b>is projected to score
the most goals during this week and don’t have a blank in 16 or 17 – not the
most exciting picks going forward, but good enough to fill some roster slots if
needed for week 15. If you want to start building again for after week 15, then
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">LA </b>are your guys as they have no blanks
and project well going forward.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Top individual transfer targets by week:</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Week 13: Morales, Goncalves, Schuler, Farrell, Shuttleworth,
Donovan, Keane</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Week 14: Higuain, Rosales, Morales, Goncalves, Farrell,
Shuttleworth, Oduro</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Week 15: Wallace, Valeri, W. Johnson, Higuain, Oduro,
Donovan, Keane</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>My plan:</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Week 13: Ashe to Farrell and O. Gonzalez to Goncalves</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Week 14: R. Johnson to Oduro</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Week 15: Holgersson to Wallace, Hedges to Lee, save third
transfer to bring in a player with a double week 16</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My spring coaching season officially ends this weekend, so expect a couple posts over the next couple weeks as I will suddenly have free-time on my hands. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-63234822271037233902013-03-01T12:34:00.002-08:002013-03-01T12:34:54.431-08:00new fantasy resourcesa couple more useful resources have cropped up in the last few days that can help us maximize our decisions.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://m.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2013/02/28/mls-fantasy-who-takes-corners-set-pieces-and-penalty-kicks">corners, PKs, and free-kicks</a><br />
this is far more comprehensive than my page (now deleted)<br />
<br />
<a href="http://fantasyoverlord.com/MLS">fantasy overlord</a><br />
this is a mathematical projection tool that was developed from the same math behind a tool that picked the fantasy team over the season and placed in the top 500 for EPL fantasy. I have a lot of reservations about how it translates to MLS, knowing how much a team can change from year to year. That said, I think their team projections are likely to be more valuable than what I have used for my projected goals scored and projected goals conceded. The player projections are useful for players that played a lot of minutes last year, but are useless for players who missed time due to injury or came in mid-season (bernardez, ferreira, zakuani, higuain, o. gonzalez, etc.). this tool should improve it's predictive ability as more of this season's data is entered.Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-62435144868235261212013-02-24T16:37:00.001-08:002013-02-24T18:02:17.846-08:00Which stats REALLY matter for a position?I have been wondering for a while which stats are the most important to target and what type of players are most likely to produce high quantities of those stats. My main purpose for this is to find individual players who underperformed for us in fantasy last season that might be able to give us better returns this season if they have similar performances. In other words, what players got screwed over last season because their teammates didn't live up to average?<br />
<br />
What I've done is look at the correlation between PP90 and every statistic that provides fantasy points and a couple that don't provide points such as shot conversion percentage and key pass conversion percentage. I've done this on a positional basis only, so we know which stats are most important for each position.<br />
<br />
<b>Defenders:</b><br />
<br />
Defenders are the most inconsistent group of players in terms of finding a stat that highly correlates with PP90. CBI had the highest correlation at 0.34. Goals and assists follow with correlations of 0.29 and 0.28 respectively. The big shocker, is that a team's clean sheets has a surprisingly low level of correlation - a mere 0.19 - with a defender's PP90.<b> </b><br />
<br />
So, what does this mean? It's tough to draw any firm conclusions about what defenders we should choose. Since CBI and goals are the two stats with the highest correlation with PP90, I am inclined to say that we want to pick center backs who get forward on set-pieces. This is fairly accurately reflected in the players found at the top of my <a href="http://mlsfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/02/player-projections-defenders.html">defender projections</a>. We see center backs like Collin, Bernardez, Ianni, Taylor, Berry, Olave, and McDonald all feature as good targets according to my PP90 projections.<br />
<br />
<b>Midfielders:</b><br />
<br />
There are a couple stats with much higher correlation with PP90 for our midfielders. Assists correlate with midfielder PP90 at a strong 0.77. However, there are several other stats that correlate at better than 0.5: key passes (0.72), goals (0.68), and crosses (0.62).<br />
<b> </b><br />
There's a couple things to take away from this. First, is the reason there is such high correlation for several statistics is that there are some midfielders (pretty much every defensive midfielder in the league) who simply don't rack up any of the above categories. Even with the added defensive points for CBI and recoveries available, defensive midfielders simply don't score enough of them to make them viable alternatives to their attacking counterparts.<br />
<br />
We know we want attacking midfielders, but do we want wingers or central midfielders? Both versions of an attacking midfielder has about equal opportunity for goals, assists, and key passes. It isn't until we get to the fourth most highly correlated statistic where we find our answer. A decently high correlation with crosses and PP90 means we want wingers. Zusi, Rosales, Davis, Pontius, Chaves - all are in the top level of my <a href="http://mlsfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/02/player-projections-midfielders.html">midfielder projections</a> and all are wingers. It should be noted that there are several central playmakers who also rank high in my projections (Morales, Ferreira, DeRosario) who take freekicks, corners, and/or PKs and are also valid targets.<br />
<br />
<b>Forwards:</b><br />
<br />
Surprise, surprise, goals is the stat that best correlates with PP90 for forwards at 0.77. Assists (0.69) and key passes (0.64) also had high levels of correlation with PP90.<br />
<b> </b><br />
In our forwards, we are looking for goalscorers. I'm sure everyone who has even heard the term "fantasy soccer" could have told you that. However, I was surprised at how highly correlated both assists and key passes were with PP90 which gives me second thought about choosing guys who are poachers (Bengston, Bruin, Cooper and to a lesser extent, Wondolowski) instead of more well-rounded players (Higuain, Henry, Keane).Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-86153115207366779172013-02-18T14:23:00.000-08:002013-02-18T14:23:46.347-08:00Alternate method for finding valueThis time instead of looking at how much overvalued or undervalued a player is, I looked to see how much value they give in terms of projected season points per $million spent (PPM). Generally, this returns the same players near the top of the rankings as my previous method. This might be a simpler way for people to understand exactly how much return they can expect from their investment.<br />
<br />
Here's the takeaways:<br />
<ol>
<li>The best use of these charts is to find cheap players who have the potential to give us decent returns when they are called upon to come off the bench.</li>
<li>Another use for these charts is to find the expensive players who offer a decent return on investment.</li>
<li>Defenders tend to have a higher PPM than midfielders who have a higher PPM than forwards.</li>
<li>It looks as though there are several cheap options in defense that have a good PPM. This leads me to believe this is the area we should look to save a bit of cash for some attackers with lower PPM but higher season points. Look to pick up at least two of Woolard, McCarthy*, Tierney*, Korb*, Hedges, Hurtado, and Parke.</li>
</ol>
*May not be starters<br />
<br />
<u><b>Defenders</b></u> <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizJn5s61Xnz0Ma_-HqLdv5oDdtapzcwbHBS6CMwmQzGGIlbf1UNxOlNeLO8G2k18e3_7YBd2uhiICg12dyCRPV6vhEA5bvTzrlUj-dNnq-5ytz1I94xqMRVPK5CFUTmAUOCJid4T4Woro/s1600/da.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizJn5s61Xnz0Ma_-HqLdv5oDdtapzcwbHBS6CMwmQzGGIlbf1UNxOlNeLO8G2k18e3_7YBd2uhiICg12dyCRPV6vhEA5bvTzrlUj-dNnq-5ytz1I94xqMRVPK5CFUTmAUOCJid4T4Woro/s640/da.jpg" width="458" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<u><b>Midfielders</b></u><br />
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<b><u>Forwards</u></b><br />
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<br />Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-40672464420001283612013-02-16T22:50:00.002-08:002013-02-16T22:52:02.118-08:00Finding players who are undervalued: Part 4 - forwardsAnd finally we look at pricing inefficiencies of our forwards. Again, I have grouped the top couple prices into a single "elite" bracket. For those of you who are contributors to r/mls, this highlights exactly why I was trying to convince people that Henry was a better choice for MVP than Wondo... but that's a different blog post. There has been a lot of movement for these players' supporting players this offseason with the exception of Wondo. Henry lost Cooper to Dallas, Saborio lost Espindola to New York, Johnson lost Montero to the allure of Libertadores soccer, and Keane lost Donovan to an existential crisis. It will be difficult to say exactly how all these moves will affect the elite strikers, but my guess is every one of them has a worst season than last except for Johnson and Saborio. That doesn't mean they're not worth owning, however, and we have to go with one or two of them simply for good options to captain when they have easy gameweeks.<br />
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Higuain - the most undervalued player in the entire game who is guaranteed to start (Gordon ranks above him, but is not a locked-in starter). Higuain - the player projected to score the most points out of anyone in the entire game at any position. Higuain - the guy who only has one home game (against San Jose nonetheless) in the first five gameweeks. No player has been in and out of my lineup more. He's only owned by a mere 10% at the time of writing, so has potential for significant price rise if he starts hot and not much danger of significant price fall if he doesn't. </div>
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Not quite elite options here, but still pricy enough to make it feel like they should be producing more than these guys did last season. Espindola is an interesting option for me. Assuming he'll be playing a similar role as Cooper did last season, he should get plenty of quality chances, though his historical shot conversion rate is lower. Hassli is another player who I think will greatly benefit from his transfer to Dallas. </div>
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The players we want to have that breakout season that can make our friends wonder, "how the hell did you know he was going to score so many goals this season!?" I actually made a bold prediction that Arrieta is going to win the golden boot this year so long as Higuain remains healthy. I would still pick Higuain and try to find somewhere else to save the money. Ryan Johnson and Juan Agudelo are two players I think will overperform these predictions simply due to changes in playing style and new coaches. At this point, Estrada looks to be Seattle's second striker, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Martinez eat some of those minutes.<br />
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Again, the budget options here are not locked-in starters. MacDonald is the only one who seems to be the first choice for their team. Mwanga might be with the injury to Dike and Oduro has seen time with the first squad in the preseason for Columbus. If Gordon does end up being a starter (because of running a 4-3-3 or Wondolowski dropping to a midfield role) he becomes the best value in the entire game. It will be tough to be as efficient as last season, but still has plenty of room to deliver adequate returns for his price.<br />
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<br />Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-30767767985897183982013-02-16T22:14:00.001-08:002013-02-16T22:14:17.677-08:00Finding players who are undervalued: Part 3 - midfielders<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Again, the key column we want to examine is the residuals column. The greater the number, the more undervalued that player is. This first group I decided to look at the "elite" options instead of looking at them all as individual price brackets. Here we see that most of these players are undervalued despite being the most expensive players in the midfield. My eye is on Ferreira because Dallas have signed Cooper with a great finishing rate and also Hassli who has a great workrate and combines well holding up the ball so the midfielders can get into the attack.</div>
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The next group of not-quite-elite players is a bunch of players that just don't do it for me. Pontius and Morales are the only two who were on my shortlist before looking at the data and are the only two who are there after looking at the data.</div>
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The 8m bracket has a bunch of players who are here because of their name or simply had a really good season last year that I'm not sure they'll replicate. Le Toux is a midfielder in this season's game, but will likely be used as a forward and may have spot-kick duty. <br />
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<br />Adu is the only player who piques my interest from this group but he seems to be on his way out of Philly so he is toxic to fantasy managers. Completely avoid this price bracket.</div>
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<br />A bunch of defensive midfielders come in the 7m price bracket. Again, avoid everyone in this list.</div>
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Now we're starting to get into some interesting options. This is the group we want to take some risks in as these are generally attacking players who were on bad attacking teams last season or simply didn't get much playing time. Cascio and Bolanos are both currently in my side as cheap midfielders who are attacking players that have potential to have better seasons than last year by virtue of their teams having better seasons than last year.<br />
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There really aren't many players here that are guaranteed starters. Figuring out who has a decent chance of locking down that starting role is key to picking a 6m option. As I mentioned in a previous post, the defensive midfielders (Kitchen, Carroll, Simms, Nagamura, etc.) are overpriced, even at this price level.<br />
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And there's the bargain basement options. I'm not sure any of these guys are starters, with Pause and Saragosa most likely. I would probably spend the extra .5m to get a guy in the 6m bracket who is guaranteed to start.<br />
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<br />Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-1060064907345516152013-02-16T11:53:00.003-08:002013-02-16T11:59:50.039-08:00Keeper rotation errorThis was important enough to where I felt the need to make a post about it. My post about keeper rotation highlighted the combination of DC and Chicago keepers since they had surprisingly low predicted goals conceded... too low to be right. So, I revisited the data and realized there is a gameweek where neither of them play. So, I now advise NOT to go with a combination of DC and Chicago. I am looking at other potential options, with LA likely being the team I focus on to find a pairing for. LA was a completely different team defensively when they had Omar Gonzalez return from injury and I think Cudicini will be an upgrade over Saunders to boot.<br />
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The following keeper combinations have a week where neither play, so their numbers are too low:<br />
Houston/Seattle<br />
Houston/LA<br />
Seattle/LA<br />
Philly/Toronto<br />
Philly/Vancouver<br />
Toronto/Vancouver<br />
Chicago/COlumbus<br />
Chicago/DC (missing 2 gameweeks in fact)<br />
Columbus/DC <br />
Chicago/Dallas<br />
DC/DallasAndrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-63098598676390501202013-02-16T11:30:00.000-08:002013-02-16T11:30:04.486-08:00Finding players who are undervalued: Part 2 - defendersThis time I ran the regression using only defenders. I categorized them based on price and ranked them within their price bracket based on how undervalued they are based on last year's PP90. Note: The "rank" column shows the player's overall rank with only defenders in the regression.<br />
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Collin comes in as the number 1 overall undervalued defender despite being in the top price bracket. He also has the highest expected PP90 with the next closest (Bernardez) with a PP90 10 percent lower. I wasn't planning to have any defenders priced at 6m in my squad, but I just can't see how we can pass Collin up given that he is one of the most underpriced players in the game. Bernardez also stands a good chance of making my squad at this point. <br />
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There's no real standout undervalued player in the 5.5m price bracket. For me, examining the Houston defenders is the key point here. If we compare Taylor, Ashe, and Boswell, Taylor is the best value and also has the highest PP90. Ashe was originally in my team, but this has convinced me to find the extra cash to bring in Taylor instead.<br />
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The 5m bracket is where things start to get a bit more convoluted. Even though Burch is on top of this bracket, and second overall, he shouldn't make anyone's team because he will not be the starter in Seattle unless Gonzalez gets injured. McCarthy and Tierney come from an interesting New England team that quietly kept nine clean sheets last season. I'm not exactly sure who will be the starters for the Revs, but having one of those two in your side might be useful. There's a slew of useful options in Hedges, Hurtado, Gonzalez, Parke, Harvey, Williams... basically there are a ton of decent choices in the 5m bracket that you should adjust these projections based on how you think defenses will fare relative to last season and also take a look at the difficulty of upcoming fixtures.<br />
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And finally, we have our budget options. The trick here is finding players that will be starters. Woolard (should be owned by far more than the mere 4.8% that do at the time of writing) and Jazic are the only ones at this point I have any confidence in starting. Korb could start in DC if the Riley transfer rumors are nothing more than rumors. New York has a couple players that could end up as starters, I think Lade has a better chance than Kimura at this point.<br />
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<br />Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-56189507359268423772013-02-15T23:14:00.000-08:002013-02-16T10:27:36.466-08:00Finding players who are undervalued: part 1Sorry for the long post, but I found this topic particularly fascinating and insightful for picking my team.<br />
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For this first post in a series of several, I am going to explore the idea of finding players who project to score more points per game than the average player for that price range. To do that I used my database to do a regression looking at projected points per 90 minutes (PP90) and price. Again, I just want to remind my readers that these projections are 100% based on last year's performance and adjusted as if all players played every minute during the season.<br />
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This initial chart shows when I ran the regression using all players with 1,000+ minutes. The key column to look at here is the "residuals" column. Positive numbers represent players who's performance last season is better than the average for all players of the same price in this year's game. The larger the number, the more undervalued they are. The important takeaways are:<br />
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1. Gordon and Higuain are significantly more undervalued than any other player based on their PP90 output from last season and this season's pricing. <br />
2. Forwards tend to be more overvalued than the other two positions.<br />
3. Defenders tend to be undervalued.<br />
4. Midfielders seem to be more accurately valued, on average, than the other two field positions. <br />
5. Defensive midfielders tend to be overvalued. This was the question I was originally trying to answer - general fantasy soccer knowledge says that d-mids aren't worth owning. However, with the additional options to earn points with CBI, recoveries, key passes, etc. That claim needed to be re-examined. It still holds true, in general, as many of the league's defensive midfielders have a negative residual.<br />
6. Some of the most undervalued players also happen to be some of the most expensive in their positions - Henry, Collin, Donovan, Zusi, Bernardez. These are the types of players we want to spend our money on and find suitable cheap options for our other players (Woolard, MacDonald, Tierney, Saragosa).<br />
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I have several more posts that are related to this that I will hopefully find time for this weekend. I plan to do this same regression idea of this post except specialized for each position and sort by price to find some potentially undervalued players in each price bracket. I Also plan to explore which attribute(s) (goals, assists, CBI, key passes, etc.) is most indicative of a high PP90 for each position.<br />
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<br />Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-84750658682892156232013-02-10T19:44:00.000-08:002013-02-16T12:11:07.266-08:00Keeper rotationEditor's note (02/16/2013): The combination of DC and Chicago keepers was artificially low because there is a gameweek where neither team plays. Avoid this combination, despite previous advice that it was the best combination to select. <br />
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Keeper selection is an interesting issue that has been explored dozens of times for other fantasy soccer games. The general consensus is to find two cheap keepers who rotate having good matchups. I'm a big proponent of this strategy as it allows us to upgrade our squads in other areas. The other strategy is to buy one premium keeper and one cheap keeper and play the premium keeper in the vast majority of gameweeks. In the official MLS game, my gut is telling me to choose the two-cheap-keeper rotation strategy because of the bonus points players receive for recoveries, CBI, etc.<br />
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I took the <a href="http://mlsfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/02/predicted-goals-allowed-first-10-weeks.html">expected goals conceded</a> each week by each team for the first 10 gameweeks and contrasted them with every other team. I then chose the lower value for each gameweek for each combination and used that as my choice keeper for the week. From there I simply added up the value for each of the 10 gameweeks for the following values. The values in red text indicate that there is at least one gameweek where neither team plays. <br />
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I also picked out the top 10 combinations for each price combination possible for starting keepers. There were a couple teams (Vancouver, New York, Dallas) where I wasn't sure who would be the starting keeper and would result in different pricing, so I used my best guess for each team. Combinations in yellow indicate at least one missing gameweek.<br />
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I should also make note that LA was a completely different team last year with Gonzalez in the lineup. However, even when I adjust the numbers based on their goals conceded with Gonzalez, they still do not have more than one combination in the top 10 overall.<br />
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The following keeper combinations have a week where neither play, so their numbers are too low:<br />
Houston/Seattle<br />
Houston/LA<br />
Seattle/LA<br />
Philly/Toronto<br />
Philly/Vancouver<br />
Toronto/Vancouver<br />
Chicago/COlumbus<br />
Chicago/DC (missing 2 gameweeks in fact)<br />
Columbus/DC <br />
Chicago/Dallas<br />
DC/Dallas
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<br />Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-14326662683388166382013-02-09T13:51:00.002-08:002013-02-09T13:51:51.680-08:00Player projections - defendersWe should approach defenders a bit differently than we approach our attacking options. Since a large part of how defenders score points for us in fantasy is collecting clean sheets, we essentially can just compare which teams are likely to collect clean sheets. Though we are definitely selecting individual players for our defenders, we are also selecting defensive units. If I want to choose Corey Ashe, I am effectively buying into the Houston defensive unit as a whole. Because of this, I tend to choose the cheapest option in each unit who will be a starter unless there is reason to believe one of the more expensive players will produce more bonus points or goals/assists.<br />
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<br />Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706825640841470371.post-64295217556642417152013-02-03T13:45:00.000-08:002013-02-03T13:45:24.404-08:00Player projections - MidfieldersThe midfielder situation isn't nearly as cut and dry as the forward situation. Midfielders tend to get more of both the attacking and defending bonus points in the official MLS game so their scores seem to have a narrower variance for players we are actually considering. There aren't really any clear breaks where there is an obvious way to group the top couple players. The closest I can see happens around Shea Salinas ranking 8th where if we ignore Salinas, we see a drop of about 20 points over the season.<br />
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I'm going to leave out Donovan who is off being <a href="https://twitter.com/SadLandon">Sad Landon</a> and we don't know when he will return. So, that leaves us with Rosales, Zusi, Davis, Chavez, Bernier, and Pontius. I also think that Ferreira, DeRo, and LeToux all have potential to give us fantastic returns as they are all coming off tumultuous season of injury or transfers.Andrew Crollardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00772611103675635928noreply@blogger.com0