Thursday, May 16, 2013

Week 15: fail to prepare, prepare to fail.

The double-gameweek bacchanalia of week 11 is over and our rosters are locked for the morning-after bloody mary of week 12’s Philly/LA double. Weeks 13 and 14 aren’t anything special but weeks 15 and 16 loom on the horizon. If you happen to still have your wildcard, use it between weeks 15 and 16 and take advantage of good matchups between now and then. For the rest of us that used our wildcard early (week 3 for me), we need to start planning NOW. Week 15 has 9 teams without a game and week 16 has 5 teams without a game and 4 teams with a double. Oh yeah, then there's a bunch of players gone for international duty to boot.

Week 15 players:
·         Chicago (vs. Portland)
·         Columbus (at Philly)
·         DC (at New England)
·         LA (at RSL)
·         New England (vs. DC)
·         Philly (vs. Columbus)
·         Portland (at Chicago)
·         RSL (vs. LA)
·         Seattle (vs. Vancouver)
·         Vancouver (at Seattle)

Week 16 feast:
·         Colorado (vs. San Jose and at Chicago)
·         Montreal (at Columbus and vs. Houston)
·         Portland (vs. Dallas and at LA)
·         Vancouver (vs. New England and vs. Chivas)

Week 16 famine:
·         New York
·         Philly
·         RSL
·         Seattle
·         SKC

So, what teams do we target to bring in and when do we do it?

Targets to transfer in before week 13 deadline:
RSL and New England – both teams have 3 home games in a row in weeks 13, 14, and 15. I like New England’s defense as the best target for transfers this week as they are projected to keep 2 clean sheets out of 3 based on this season’s goals scored/conceded home and away for them and their opponents. I plan to double-up on New England defenders. RSL’s prospects on defense don’t look as good, with their only projected clean sheet coming in week 13. On the other side of the ball, RSL players are more attractive and are projected to score more goals than anyone over the coming 3 weeks (tied with LA and Columbus). RSL do have a blank in week 16, so limit yourself to a maximum of 2 RSL players. If you don’t like either RSL or the Revs, LA is where you want to invest as they don’t have a blank week during this stretch and project decent enough returns.

Targets to transfer in before week 14 deadline:
RSL and New England players are still fine targets here. However, the best targets at this point are Columbus attackers. Columbus have two home games surrounding an away trip to face a leaky Philly defense. Seattle are projected to score the most goals in weeks 14 and 15 combined and are projected to keep a clean sheet in week 15 so they are worth a look - beware of their blank in week 16. Aside from that, there really aren’t many favorable matchups. You could look at Vancouver who are the only team who play 4 games during weeks 14-16 (two home games in week 16 look tempting). My plan for week 14 is to make just a single transfer and roll the other over into week 15. There aren’t many players I’m excited about in week 14 who play in week 15, and it also allows us the flexibility to shift money around in week 15 and helps avoid potential injury/suspension issues.

Targets to transfer in before week 15 deadline:
At this point, a lot depends on who you have and how you’re set up for week 16. Portland and Vancouver are the only two teams to play in week 15 and have a double in week 16. Vancouver does have a blank in week 17, so I’m not crazy about them as transfer targets after this week. Portland and Colorado are the teams with doubles in 16 and no blank in 17, so Portland players are where I’d look to first – might even triple up on Timbers by week 16. Columbus is projected to score the most goals during this week and don’t have a blank in 16 or 17 – not the most exciting picks going forward, but good enough to fill some roster slots if needed for week 15. If you want to start building again for after week 15, then LA are your guys as they have no blanks and project well going forward.

Top individual transfer targets by week:
Week 13: Morales, Goncalves, Schuler, Farrell, Shuttleworth, Donovan, Keane
Week 14: Higuain, Rosales, Morales, Goncalves, Farrell, Shuttleworth, Oduro
Week 15: Wallace, Valeri, W. Johnson, Higuain, Oduro, Donovan, Keane

My plan:
Week 13: Ashe to Farrell and O. Gonzalez to Goncalves
Week 14: R. Johnson to Oduro
Week 15: Holgersson to Wallace, Hedges to Lee, save third transfer to bring in a player with a double week 16

My spring coaching season officially ends this weekend, so expect a couple posts over the next couple weeks as I will suddenly have free-time on my hands.

1 comment:

  1. Keep in mind that MLS Fantasy transfers during weeks 15 and 16 increase to three. That means by week 16 a potential of 10 free trades are available (2+2+3+3). Practically an entire new team