Monday, June 10, 2013

Differential discussion: weeks 16-21


Alright, so we’re at a point in the season where almost all of us need to make up some ground on whoever we’re chasing. We won’t do that by making the safe play with all 11 of our starters. It’s time to take some risks, but who stands to benefit from their upcoming schedule? I’m going to explore potential differential picks for weeks 17-22. Keep in mind that these are potential differentials – they are designed to be high-risk / high-reward picks.

1. Camilo – At time of writing, Camilo was owned by just 3.8 percent of managers. Vancouver are projected to score the most goals in week 16, fifth most in week 18, third most in week 20, and second most in week 21. Going into the season, Camilo was rated as the 8th best value for all forwards, and I think he represents amazing value (priced at $7.8 at time of writing) over the next 6 weeks.

2. Graham Zusi – How the hell can he be a differential, everyone and their mother will pick him back up after the back-to-back blank? Exactly, EVERYONE will be grabbing him again, despite the fact that SKC is projected almost exactly average goals scored from weeks 17-21. What I’m proposing (and am going to do for my own team), is to ignore Zusi and spend the money elsewhere.

3. Patrice Bernier / Justin Mapp – Montreal are projected to score the highest average goals per game from weeks 18-22 (Note: blank in week 17). Neither are owned at more than 10 percent at time of writing. Both have had stretches of the season where they were fantastic, and they could both easily return to that form over this span.

4. David Ferreira / Blas Perez – Owned by 5 and 0.5 percent respectively of all managers. Dallas are projected to score the third most total goals from weeks 17-21. These are the engines of the Dallas attack, despite everyone clamoring about Michel (mostly because he’s playing out of position). Michel will be owned by tons of managers, but Ferreira and Perez won’t be.

5. Robbie Keane – As of week 15, only 15 managers in the top 1000 owned Keane. I imagine plenty will be bringing him back over the next several weeks, but plenty won’t be able/willing to do so. Lots of people have significant gains tied up in Jac Mac (who is still a good choice over weeks 17-21), and lots of people will be using their transfers to fix their teams after week 16 as every week from 17-21 has 3 teams missing a game each week. Keane won’t be as large a differential as those above, but enough to be mentioned because of how incredibly good LA’s attacking returns are projected to be through week 21 (most goals scored weeks 17-21, with most goals scored in week 17 and 20 and 5th most in week 19).

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