Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Week 24 Preview

Predicted goals scored:


Teamscored
kansas city3.9
portland3.8
philadelphia3.1
dcu3.1
chivas3.0
RSL2.6
LA2.3
Seattle1.9
new york1.8
Vancouver1.8
toronto1.5
chicago1.5
colorado1.1
houston1.0
dallas1.0
San Jose1.0
new england0.9
columbus0.7

Predicted goals conceded:


Teamallowed 
chivas0.52.8
Seattle0.7 
philadelphia0.92.1
RSL1.01.2
dcu1.0 
kansas city1.01.0
toronto1.0 
Vancouver1.0 
chicago1.1 
new york1.3 
colorado1.5 
San Jose1.5 
LA1.51.8
portland1.83.1
houston1.8 
columbus1.9 
new england2.1 
dallas2.3

Team of the week:

Nielson
Pearce, Williams, Beltran, Kitchen
Zusi, Jewsbury, De Rosario, LaBrocca
Kamara, Le Toux
Subs: Keller, Franklin, Donovan, Saborio

Captains:


Zusi – Another double for Kansas City. I backed him last week and he paid it back in kind with two goals. It seems like every week I include him in my team of the week, he produces results for us.

Jewsbury – Another double for Portland too. He continues to be one of the players that you must be playing every week, despite where his team sits in the standings.

Le Toux – I have gut feelings every now and again. This is one of those times. I might give Seba the armband this week.

De Rosario – DC have a home game against an inconsistent and often leaky Portland defense.

La Brocca – He has been the surprise performer of the season for me. He continues to contribute in big ways for Chivas and it is producing fantasy results for us too.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Week 24 Doubles

This week sees six teams with doubles. None of them look all that appealing to me, but as always, two games in a week is better than one. I’ve been away on vacation all weekend and haven’t been able to watch a single game yet, so I may comment on someone who has been injured or picked up a red card… sorry.

Chivas:
at Portland and vs. Salt Lake

Chivas have recently acquired Juan Pablo Angel and moved his stuff across the hall from the Galaxy locker room. He was a huge flop in LA, but I can see him doing better for Chivas. Especially if he is given spot-kick privileges (which is why he was so valuable in the fantasy game when he was in a Red Bull uniform). He scored in his debut (after the rest of this article was written) but I haven’t had a chance to watch the game yet to see how he played.

The away game at Portland is more likely to yield results for the offensive options (LaBrocca, Angel) but the home game against Salt Lake is actually rated as the most likely to yield a clean sheet out of any team this week.

Philadelphia:
vs. New England and at Salt Lake

Philadelphia is the team to load up on this week. A home game against New England has been something to look forward to this season, as the Revs have been the worst defense on the road for any team not from Canada. I backed Le Toux a few weeks ago and he bagged two, both from the penalty spot. The addition of Adu gives the Union more attacking options and makes them cup contenders in my eyes. As they have been most of this season, the defense continues to look like a good picky for fantasy managers. Williams is still my pick of the bunch, but play any and all of them this week.

Portland: at Chivas and vs. DCU

Portland has the two easiest opponents this week, but they’ve been so inconsistent this year that it is tough to find any fantasy options not named Jack. There really isn’t a whole lot to say about the Timbers when it comes to fantasy. They’ve been too inconsistent to back anyone else but Jewsbury since he’s on spot kicks and set pieces.

Salt Lake:
at Chivas and vs. Philadelphia

Salt Lake have been quite the let down for fantasy managers this season. Their injury-plagued season has left us with few options on the attacking side of the ball. Saborio and Espindola are both back to fitness and could start producing again. I don’t rate any of their midfielders highly for fantasy points, but if I had to pick one I guess I’d go with Beckerman. The defense, on the other hand, is as solid as ever and is the real place to look for investment. Rimando, Beltran, Wingert, Borchers, and Olave have all produced points for us this season and I expect at least one clean sheet this week.

Kansas City:
vs. Dallas and vs. LA

The Sporks have the most difficult fixtures of the week. However, I can see them coming out of the week with 4 points. I think the games will both be low scoring and could end up 1-0 or 2-1. Zusi and Kamara are the players I would go with from this side. Kamara seems to be the forward least likely to be rotated, as he often finds himself out on the wing. Besler is the pick for the defense as he has the opportunity to chip in the odd assist.

LA: at New York and at Kansas City

LA keeps on getting results and stand 6 points clear in the supporters shield race. However, they will face two high-powered offenses this week, both on the road. I don’t see LA keeping a clean sheet this week, and the stats show them conceding in each game too. The stats don’t look promising for their offense either, as they are predicted to score just one goal in each game.

New signing, Robbie Keane, scored one on the weekend. Again, I haven’t had the opportunity to watch the game yet to see how he played otherwise. Perhaps one of my loyal readers could chime in with a comment?

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Week 23 Preview

Predicted goals scored


TeamScored
kansas city4.4
portland3.9
chicago3.2
new england2.7
LA2.5
dcu2.5
colorado2.3
houston2.2
new york1.7
columbus1.6
dallas1.5
chivas1.3
Vancouver1.0
toronto1.0
philadelphia1.0
Seattle0.7
RSL0.6
San Jose0.5


Predicted goals conceded


TeamAllowed 
kansas city0.51.2
LA0.5 
houston0.61.2
dallas0.7 
new england0.81.7
columbus1.0 
chicago1.01.3
portland1.02.5
dcu1.21.9
colorado1.3 
RSL1.4 
Seattle1.5 
new york1.5 
philadelphia1.6 
toronto2.1 
chivas2.3 
San Jose2.5 
Vancouver3.4



Team of the week:


Hall
Besler, Franklin, Soares, Segares
Zusi, Jewsbury, Donovan, DeRosario
Kamara, Oduro
Subs: Nielson, Ihemelu, Sanna Nyassi, Perlaza

Captains:


Jewsbury – Portland host Vancouver in a Cascadia Derby match (on a related, but non-fantasy note: I’m excited to see what the TA tifo is) on top of a trip to Kansas City. As always, Jewsbury is the offensive pick from Portland.

Kamara – Kansas City host both Portland and DCU. You can’t ask for much better offensive fixtures than this in the same week. Of course there’s rotation risk in the Sporting frontline, but Kamara should get at least 120 minutes.

Zusi – See above. Add in the threat of set pieces and a bit less rotation risk, and you have some potential for points.

Donovan – I said it a few weeks ago, but Donovan has by far the highest points per game out of any player. A predicted goals scored of 2.5 for LA against rivals San Jose looks like a decent prospect for Donovan.

De Rosario – Two games for DeRo will provide him with ample opportunity to expand upon his last 2 fantastic gameweeks. He’s the second highest scoring player in terms of PPG, and should always be considered for the armband when DC has a favorable week.

Week 23 Doubles

It’s another week with plenty of doubles to go around. Several teams are expected to score more than three goals while none are expected to keep more than one clean sheet.

Kansas City: vs. Portland and vs. DCU

Kansas City are predicted to score the most goals this week, which makes sense if you look their opponents. Both Portland and DCU have had issues at the back all season long and consistently give up goals that they probably shouldn’t. On the other hand, both sides are capable of scoring goals and are unpredictable when they will go off for a couple. I’d back both the offense and defense from KC this week to collect some decent fantasy returns for us.

Houston: at New England and vs. RSL

Houston have probable the worst of it for the teams with doubles this week. An away trip to New England is surprisingly tricky, while RSL have the best traveling defense in the league. I’m not too big on many players in Orange this week, but the mere fact they have a double makes me consider them as options.

New England: vs. Houston and vs. New York

New England have two home matches this week. For some reason I am feeling like they will produce two wins against two teams fighting for their playoff lives. I really have no statistical basis for this feeling though.

Chicago: vs. DCU and vs. Toronto

Chicago are the other team with a fantastic set of fixtures this week. Home games against DCU and TFC have been something to celebrate this season for fantasy managers. Against RSL, Toronto played in a 3-4-3 formation which would open up a ton of opportunities for someone like Oduro to get behind the defense.

Portland: at Kansas City and vs. Vancouver

The trip to Kansas City doesn’t look too promising on either side of the ball. However, hosting Vancouver looks rather inviting for fantasy investment. With another upcoming double gameweek, it is definitely worth bringing in a Portland player or two if you don’t have any.

DCU: at Chicago and at Kansas City

An interesting away road trip for DCU awaits as they travel to Chicago and Kansas City. After last week’s scoreline, you can’t help but think that DCU might be starting to click with the addition of DeRosario pulling the strings. As an aside, a player from DC has won MLS player of the week for 3 weeks straight.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Week 22 preview

It looks like I missed the fact that LA and Kansas City don’t play this week (I’m going to blame that on the schedule on the ESPN website). Since I didn’t know about those blanks, I also didn’t plan for them and am stuck making transfers this week that I didn’t plan on. One of my readers also caught that these two teams have a missing gameweek and commented on it, so thank you for that.

Predicted goals scored:



TeamGoals Scored
new york3.0
houston3.0
Seattle2.8
columbus2.3
dcu2.3
San Jose1.8
chivas1.7
philadelphia1.7
Vancouver1.4
colorado1.3
chicago1.2
dallas1.0
RSL0.8
new england0.7
toronto0.7
portland0.6
kansas cityX
LAX

Predicted goals conceded:



TeamGoals Allowed
houston0.6
RSL0.7
columbus0.7
toronto0.8
philadelphia1.0
new york1.2
San Jose1.3
dcu1.4
dallas1.7
Seattle1.7
colorado1.8
new england2.3
Vancouver2.3
chivas2.8
portland3.0
chicago3.0
kansas cityX
LAX

Team of the week:

Hall
Wingert, Miranda, Williams, Morgan
Davis, Fernandez, De Rosario, Lindpere
Henry, Montero
Subs: Rimando, Boswell, LaBrocca, Mendoza

Captains:

Henry – New York are predicted to score 3 this weekend. That’s a good enough reason for me to give the armband to Titi.

Lindpere – He may not be on that searing form of a few weeks ago, but he’s still pivotal in the RedBull attack.

Hall – He’s one of the best shot stoppers in the league. This week also sees Houston ranked as most likely to keep a clean sheet.

DeRosario – I certainly don’t expect him to match his performance from last week, but I can see an assist or a goal.

Davis – He’s the best and most consistent attacking threat on the Dynamo. I don’t expect Portland to be able to play against Houston the way they did against LA, but that’s why the games are actually played.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Week 21 Preview

Well this is already my third post today plus I posted the new PPG and PPMS rankings pages. I still have to pick my own team to start the segment, so lets get to it.

Predicted goals scored


TeamGoals Scored
LA4.1
RSL3.5
dcu2.9
philadelphia2.9
chicago2.5
kansas city2.4
San Jose2.2
portland2.0
Vancouver1.7
colorado1.7
chivas1.4
toronto1.4
new england1.2
new york1.2
Seattle0.9
columbus0.8
dallas0.7
houston0.5



Predicted goals conceded


TeamGoals Conceded 
philadelphia0.50.9
San Jose0.5 
kansas city0.60.9
LA0.71.5
colorado0.8 
RSL0.81.2
chivas1.2 
chicago1.31.7
dcu1.4 
new england1.4 
Seattle1.5 
houston1.6 
Vancouver1.6 
columbus1.7 
dallas1.9 
portland2.22.2
new york2.9 
toronto2.9



Team of the week:
Mondragon
Franklin, Wingert, Corrales, Besler
Donovan, Pappa, DeRosario, Bekerman
Saborio, LeToux
Subs: Nielson, Califf, Jewsbury, Lenhart

Captains:
Donovan - Expect to see his name a lot in this final segment. With a PPG so much higher than every other player's, he should always at least be considered for the armband.

Mondragon - Philly are predicted to have two clean sheets this week. Even just one would be a successful captain pick.

Besler - Kansas City are also predicted to keep two clean sheets this week. I would be shocked if it happens, but one is a good possibility.

Pappa - I rate Pappa very highly. His absence for national team duty has limited his points, but he's got plenty of skill and finishing ability.

Le Toux - I expect Seba to start scoring more goals now that El Pescadito is effectively gone.

Week 21 Doubles and Blanks

The first week of the final segment provides us with 6 teams with double gameweeks. There are several teams with some fantastic looking fantasy returns for us this week, so invest heavily in those doubles right from the start.

Chicago vs. Philadelphia and at Vancouver
Chicago has a mixed bag this week. They host a Philadelphia team that tends to keep games rather low-scoring. On the other hand, they travel away to a Vancouver team that tends to allow games to be rather high-scoring. This set of games should turn out to be rather average in terms of goals scored/allowed. I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 or 4 goals both scored and allowed by Chicago over the week.

Kansas City vs. Salt Lake and vs. Seattle
This has to be the most interesting set of fixtures this week. Salt Lake is the fourth worst attacking team away from home while Seattle is right about average. Kansas City is surprisingly (to me at least) the 7th best home defense. Should mean at least one clean sheet for the home side. Unfortunately, Salt Lake and Seattle rank as the best and second best away defenses, both averaging less than 1 goal conceded per game. That said, Seattle does not play well in the heat and have been hammered by it lately. If SKC are to score in bunches, it will be against Seattle.

LA at Portland and vs. Dallas
LA is another team with a mixed set of fixtures. Their away game is the more favorable of the two as they travel to a poor Portland side. Their home match pits them against second-placed Dallas in a game that will prove incredibly important in the supporters shield race. Because of this, don't be surprised if LA plays some reserves in Portland. Special note: Landon Donovan has an average PPG over 2 more than the next closest player (De Rosario) in the game. Donovan is also rated as the biggest value in the game, barely beating out teammate Sean Franklin. I don't see how anyone could leave Donovan out of their squad, he is a must own.

Philadelphia at Chicago and vs Houston
Philadelphia has a pretty decent two games this week. Nothing to wet your pants over, but certainly worthy of considering one or two of their players. The Union defense is always worth a look, but I now believe their offense is too. With Ruiz gone, that means more time up front for Mwanga and LeToux. Le Toux is already rated as the 6th most effective forward in terms of PPG and while Mwanga comes in towar the bottom of my ranking, that is mostly due to many of his appearances being substitutions. Beware that Williams is suspended for the first match due to a red card last week.

Portland vs. LA and at San Jose
Portland has been looking like the expansion side we all expected them to be this season. They simply aren't able to hold things together and don't really have a good understanding between players anywhere on the field. That said, it is hard to ignore Jack Jewsbury as he is their main provider of offensive returns with both PK and set-piece duties.

Salt Lake at Kansas City and vs. New York
I don't like these fixtures for Salt Lake. They have struggled more than expected since the loss of Morales and surprisingly gave up 2 goals last game vs. Columbus. I could see both games ending up as 1-1 draws. One or two RSL players will still probably make my team this week though.

5-week preview: weeks 21-26

I always like to look at my fantasy games in chunks of games to be played. This allows me to make better mid-term to long-term decisions rather than just looking at each week individually. The following tables present the composite data for weeks 21 through 26

Predicted goals scored


TeamGoals ScoredGames Played
kansas city11.677
LA11.066
dcu10.686
philadelphia10.487
new york9.785
portland9.618
chicago9.297
chivas8.696
columbus8.685
RSL8.517
San Jose7.615
Seattle7.345
colorado7.175
houston6.676
Vancouver6.565
new england6.076
dallas5.465
toronto4.855


Predicted clean sheets


TeamAverage Goals AllowedClean sheets
philadelphia1.545
kansas city1.764
RSL1.523
LA1.203
columbus1.403
houston1.332
Seattle1.232
chivas0.822
dcu1.001
San Jose1.531
dallas1.471
new york0.971
colorado2.231
new england0.901
chicago1.341
toronto1.261
Vancouver2.071
portland2.070



As I'm sure you all know by now, I am a huge proponent of taking advantage of double gameweeks. This means I will give special consideration to teams with multiple double gameweeks: that means Kansas City, Portland, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Salt Lake will be composing the majority of my team for the first half of this final segment.