Monday, March 5, 2012

Under-owned players

I've hinted in previous articles that there are players who are chronically under-owned. It happens every year and before this year, I've never shared my spreadsheets with anyone else. So, using the data about minutes per point earned, and my own biases, I am going to list a bunch of players who are owned at under 5% who have a chance of scoring big if you jump on before the bandwagon gets rolling.

Goalkeepers

Gspurning - 4.7%: Seattle may not be the most solid of defensive lines, but it should be improved upon last season. From what little I've seen, Gspurning has looked good in preseason.

Hesmer - 3.9%: Columbus have been a solid defensive unit under Warzycha. They should be one of the best defenses in the Eastern Conference.

McMath - 3.4%: He's going to take over despite his young age and relative inexperience. Philly's backline is decent and should keep McMath from being peppered with too many shots.

Defenders

Segares - 3.0%: Chicago doesn't have the best defensive unit, but Segares is the best choice if you want to get into this unit. He gets up the line often and should provide several assists this year.

Wahl - 2.1%: Most expansion sides concede a ton of goals. Montreal, have Ricketts between the sticks and should fare better than Portland and Vancouver did last season. Wahl has the ability to take free kicks as well as send in crosses from the left in open play. There's a few assists in the cards.

Beitashour - 1.0%: Possibly the most under-owned player in the game. Beitashour was fantastic when he got on the pitch the second half of last season. I expect at least as many assists from him this season and wouldn't be at all surprised if he hits double-digits.

Beltran - 0.8%: His ownership is hurt because he was injured last season and thus, didn't get as many points as his RSL teammates.

Wingert - 0.5%: Exact same situation as Beltran.

Morgan - 0.1%: Morgan won the starting left-back role for TFC last season. This preseason, when they switched to a 3-4-3, Morgan and Eckersley pushed up into the midfield which could provide more attacking returns.

Midfielders

Rosales - 4.8%: I really can't understand this one. Rosales was getting all the plaudits last season and was crucial in the Sounders attack. With the addition of Johnson, Rosales should have a better target for crosses and should improve upon his tally of 13 from last season.

Chiumiento - 1.4%: It remains unclear whether he will feature as a starter for Vancouver to start the season. I can't really see the 'Caps being successful without him in the lineup. I'm not as on-board the Vancouver offense bandwagon, but they should improve over last year's unimpressive season.

Grazzini - 1.1%: This is probably the other challenger for the "most under-owned" title. Grazzini had the second best minutes per point earned out of all players with at least 500 minutes. Chicago's attack should still be great this year and Grazzini will get plenty of fantasy points.

Alhassan - 0.7%: It seems like Alhassan has the starting role in Portland for now. Somehow, he managed 58 shots last season without finding the back of the net. I don't see that happening again, but I still wouldn't take the risk just yet. Wait a few weeks to make sure he's assured the starts and getting good looks.

Forwards

Buddle - 4.9%: For someone who scored 17 goals before moving to Europe, he is owned by very few managers. Definitely has the potential to be an early-season differential.

Sapong - 3.3%: Sapong was the surprise of the potent SKC attack last season. Bravo's gone which should mean more time for the rest of the forwards.

Saborio - 2.9%: The return of Morales should mean that RSL score more this season. Saborio is likely to be the biggest beneficiary of supply.

Hassli - 2.6%: He's a fantastic player who is surrounded by good talent in the attack. If he can avoid so many cards this season, his fantasy returns should increase.

Koevermans - 2.4%: I'm sure his ownership is hurt by the blank in gameweek 1, but seriosly, 2.4%? He was the league leader in terms of minutes per point earned for all players with 500+ minutes. TFC was a different team in the second half of last season.

Mwanga - 1.5%: The absence of Le Toux means someone's going to step up in Philly. Mwanga is a year older and should better his last season rate. He should miss time for international duty this year, so if you're going to pick him, do it early.

Renteria - 1.3%: Columbus Renteria was 5th out of all players for minutes per point. Mendoza is gone. Renteria should have a big season if he can stay healthy.

Lenhart - 0.4%: The loss of his father cut Lenhart's season short last time around. While he was playing, he managed 20th in minutes per point last season for all players with 500+ minutes and should have an even better supply of the ball now. Wondolowski is probably the better choice, but If you want to double up (as I am in week 1) Lenhart is a good choice.

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