Saturday, February 16, 2013

Finding players who are undervalued: Part 3 - midfielders

Again, the key column we want to examine is the residuals column. The greater the number, the more undervalued that player is. This first group I decided to look at the "elite" options instead of looking at them all as individual price brackets. Here we see that most of these players are undervalued despite being the most expensive players in the midfield. My eye is on Ferreira because Dallas have signed Cooper with a great finishing rate and also Hassli who has a great workrate and combines well holding up the ball so the midfielders can get into the attack.

The next group of not-quite-elite players is a bunch of players that just don't do it for me. Pontius and Morales are the only two who were on my shortlist before looking at the data and are the only two who are there after looking at the data.

The 8m bracket has a bunch of players who are here because of their name or simply had a really good season last year that I'm not sure they'll replicate. Le Toux is a midfielder in this season's game, but will likely be used as a forward and may have spot-kick duty.

Adu is the only player who piques my interest from this group but he seems to be on his way out of Philly so he is toxic to fantasy managers. Completely avoid this price bracket.

A bunch of defensive midfielders come in the 7m price bracket. Again, avoid everyone in this list.

Now we're starting to get into some interesting options. This is the group we want to take some risks in as these are generally attacking players who were on bad attacking teams last season or simply didn't get much playing time. Cascio and Bolanos are both currently in my side as cheap midfielders who are attacking players that have potential to have better seasons than last year by virtue of their teams having better seasons than last year.

There really aren't many players here that are guaranteed starters. Figuring out who has a decent chance of locking down that starting role is key to picking a 6m option. As I mentioned in a previous post, the defensive midfielders (Kitchen, Carroll, Simms, Nagamura, etc.) are overpriced, even at this price level.

And there's the bargain basement options. I'm not sure any of these guys are starters, with Pause and Saragosa most likely. I would probably spend the extra .5m to get a guy in the 6m bracket who is guaranteed to start.

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