Friday, February 1, 2013

Predicted goals allowed - first 10 weeks

I used the exact same methodology to predict goals allowed as I did for goals scored. Again, I want to emphasize that these are 100% based on last year's results. Adjust them as you see fit (I'd recommend rating LA higher than last season, especially with a healthy Gonzalez and upgrade at keeper). Generally, teams playing at home concede fewer goals than they do on the road, so it is a good idea to play defenders playing at home and sit defenders playing away, especially against strong opposition.

Since having a low average goals conceded per game does not necessarily translate to having a high number of clean sheets, we need a different way of predicting who will have clean sheets. I have simply tabulated how many times each team is expected to concede fewer than 1 goal and also fewer than 1.2 goals.

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