Sunday, February 3, 2013

Player projections - Forwards

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I created a database with almost all the data from last year's official MLS fantasy game so I could actually make some educated decisions in this year's game. I converted all the categories to a per-minute basis so I could then project player scores as if they played every minute of the season to try and find the best value for money players available based on 2012 stats and 2013 prices. I calculated how many points per game a player would have scored last season if they had played every minute for: goals, assists, clean sheets, CBI, recoveries, crosses, key passes, big chances created, big chances fluffed, and goals allowed.

No, this does not include absolutely every scoring category. And no, my calculations aren't going to be perfect projections - partly because if a player gives exactly one cross per 90 minutes, my model gives them 1/3 point per game, but mostly because this is projecting future returns based off previous returns and does not take into account actual playing time, playing a different role in the team, different team quality in general, etc. There's a million different variables that will make my projections wrong, but I'd rather base my picks on something other than pure speculation and gut feeling. So, here it is:

There's really Higuain, Henry, Gordon, then Wondo, then everyone else. If you don't have one of those four players, you are making a huge mistake. It is reasonable to assume that Gordon won't get enough minutes to be a reliable option. So we are really just deciding between Higuain, Henry, and Wondo for our big-money striker or maybe some of you even want to pick two of them - I see no problem with that. I am going with Wondo to start my season because San Jose are predicted to score the most goals over the first 3, 6, and 10 gameweeks (see my earlier posts for more on that) and they don't have any blank gameweeks to start the season.

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