Friday, February 1, 2013

Predicted goals scored - first 10 weeks


The following tables are calculated based off of 2012 goals scored and conceded per game home and away by each team. I simply took the average of goals scored per game by the home team (or away team) and goals allowed by the away team (or home team). This is far from a precise prediction, especially in MLS where so much can change from one season to the next in terms of rosters, player roles, and team playing styles.

This first table shows how many goals each team is expected to score each game for the first 10 weeks. Trying to plan any further out that this is absolutely pointless since we can't know how much each team's quality has changed on either side of the ball. A blank space means they don't have a game that week (or two in the second column of week 8 marked "double"). Teams that had a high-powered offense last season like San Jose will generally look better in these charts. Feel free to adjust based on your own expectations about how a team will do relative to how they fared last season.


This second chart simply adds up how many goals each team is expected to score over a given period of time to start the season. I tend to plan about half my team (generally the more expensive players who I expect will see their price rise) for the 6-week time-frame and the other half for the first couple gameweeks, planning out my first two or three weeks of transfers.


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